Simulating dynamic fire regime and vegetation change in a warming Siberia

Abstract Background Climate change is expected to increase fire activity across the circumboreal zone, including central Siberia. However, few studies have quantitatively assessed potential changes in regime characteristics, or considered possible spatial variation magnitude of change. Moreover, while simulations indicate that climate are likely drive major shifts Siberian vegetation, knowledge future forest dynamics under joint influence and regimes remains largely theoretical. We used landscape model, LANDIS-II, with PnET-Succession BFOLDS extension simulate vegetation characteristics four alternative scenarios three 10,000-km 2 study landscapes distributed a large latitudinal gradient lowland evaluated using life history strategies adopted by tree species: resisters, avoiders, endurers. Results Annual burned area, number fires per year, size, intensity all increased The relative was greatest northernmost landscape, leading reduction difference rotation period between landscapes. Although year progressively change, mean size peaked mild moderate warming each our landscapes, suggesting fuel limitations past perimeters will feed back reduce individual extent extreme warming, less scenarios. In Southern Mid-taiga we observed shift from resister-dominated forests dominated broadleaved deciduous endurers ( Betula Populus genera) scenarios, associated substantial activity. These were accompanied decrease average cohort age total biomass simulation Conclusions Our results imply greatly heterogeneity Potential ecological consequences include widespread toward species employ endurer strategy persist an increasingly fire-prone environment.